Clik here to view.
Getting close: Japan may have just made a bottom.
The Nikkei sold off 9.38% last night, closing at 9,203. Coming after a long and steady decline (from 18,250 in June ’07), such a dramatic move to deeply oversold conditions reflects capitulation — the...
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Real credit vs. fake credit.
The essence of why bailouts will only deepen our problems is that real credit cannot be created out of thin air. This counterfeit operation is what caused the bubble to begin with, and by trying to put...
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Census employment nonsense
Bloomberg is reporting that some lame-brain economists are excited about the employment boost of the 2010 census: Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — The 2010 census couldn’t have come at a better time for the U.S....
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Chart: Secular Bear Markets Since 1900
Secular Bear Markets (red) since 1900. Source: Crestmont Research I like this chart, but I would change one thing: the bear that started in 1929 could extend clear through to 1948 due to inflation and...
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Hedge funds: Just say no
Hedge funds are almost never a good investment. As a class, they underperform and overcharge. Only 20% of funds beat their benchmarks in a given year, and of those, fewer than half outperform in two of...
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Bristlecone Pine trading
Hedge funds, mutual funds and active mangers underperform and overcharge, while a simple buy-and-hold strategy regularly sustains sharp losses and lengthy secular bear markets. So what’s an investor...
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Barrons Big Money Poll shows complacency & love for equities
It amazes me that the most successful managers could be so bullish at a time like this (way overvalued, way overbought, rising Treasury yields, stalled earnings growth), but of course stocks are most...
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What goes up must come down (coffee futures boom-to-bust).
A 9-month mania has become a relentless 2-year bear market, and prices are back where they started: From Futures.Tradingcharts.com From Indexmundi.com, here’s a longer-term view. As is typical of...
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Top developing
An overbought market that has kept the vast majority of investors and traders in the bull camp for several weeks is to be viewed with suspicion. When prices also begin to lose their upward momentum,...
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RSI declining – final warning sign
This is a very expensive and overbought market which few participants believe can decline meaningfully. That alone is dangerous, but now we see signs of technical exhaustion, such as the downtrend in...
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Daylight saving is pointless
Daylight Saving Time doesn’t save energy. It just messes up the seasonal progression of diurnal rhythms, effectively giving us jetlag. The sun was rising a few minutes earlier each week, and now...
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One more datapoint on the equity bubble
The latest Flow of Funds Report (link to pdf) shows that equities comprise a greater share of US household assets than at any point besides the height of the internet bubble. Of course, elevated prices...
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On Flash Boys, why HFT is parasitic, and why it’s over.
It’s my baseline assumption when looking at markets, financial or otherwise, that when something involves no fraud or physical coercion it’s beneficial or innocuous. When you find something damaging...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Getting close: Japan may have just made a bottom.
The Nikkei sold off 9.38% last night, closing at 9,203. Coming after a long and steady decline (from 18,250 in June ’07), such a dramatic move to deeply oversold conditions reflects capitulation — the...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Real credit vs. fake credit.
The essence of why bailouts will only deepen our problems is that real credit cannot be created out of thin air. This counterfeit operation is what caused the bubble to begin with, and by trying to put...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Census employment nonsense
Bloomberg is reporting that some lame-brain economists are excited about the employment boost of the 2010 census: Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — The 2010 census couldn’t have come at a better time for the U.S....
View ArticleClik here to view.
Chart: Secular Bear Markets Since 1900
Secular Bear Markets (red) since 1900. Source: Crestmont Research I like this chart, but I would change one thing: the bear that started in 1929 could extend clear through to 1948 due to inflation and...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Hedge funds: Just say no
Hedge funds are almost never a good investment. As a class, they underperform and overcharge. Only 20% of funds beat their benchmarks in a given year, and of those, fewer than half outperform in two of...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Bristlecone Pine trading
Hedge funds, mutual funds and active mangers underperform and overcharge, while a simple buy-and-hold strategy regularly sustains sharp losses and lengthy secular bear markets. So what’s an investor...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Barrons Big Money Poll shows complacency & love for equities
It amazes me that the most successful managers could be so bullish at a time like this (way overvalued, way overbought, rising Treasury yields, stalled earnings growth), but of course stocks are most...
View Article
